Simulating basin-scale linkages of the food-energy-water nexus with reduced complexity modeling

There is a rapidly growing need to communicate the public and policymakers on nature impact of climate change its associated extremes, which manifest themselves across essential Food-Energy-Water Systems (FEWS). The complexity this nexus demands analytical tools that can capture essence FEWS with system, may be difficult stage implement from computationally efficient point-of-view. Reduced Complexity Models (RCMs) synthesize important facets system quickly less dependence difficult-to-assign inputs. We report development an RCM framework for nexus, serve as basic research tool in facilitating parameter sensitivity experiments well means establish more insightful dialogue stakeholders through joint scenario construction. Three stand-alone coupled models at basin scale have been configured using Stella Architect software simulate: 1) major flows storage water, 2) power plant operations subsequent impacts river reaches; 3) nitrogen (N) mobilization transport atmospheric landmass sources riverine receiving waters. Delaware River Basin chosen contemporary simulation test case. Modeled results are calibrated validated observed stream gauge data, indicating reliable model performance monthly annual time steps (0.57 < NSE 0.98). A set single multi-factor climate, technology, policy then explored framework. Basin-scale sensitivities investigated intensified revealing crucial roles sewage treatment energy infrastructure resilience, significant exacerbations mitigations thermal N pollution under opposing tradeoffs between temperature electricity production technology scenarios.